Look, you can’t even make a simple logical conjecture. Each of your messages has shown an utter inability of using simple first-order logic. And yet you claim to have a graduate degree in a math-related subject? Tell me more about the smell of what’s coming out.
Please, point out to me, in the methodology of the poll, which is provided at the bottom of the page, where is it stated that 46/49 numbers are some arbitrary chances of winning the election?
My reading is that they’re averages of other polls that are polling popular vote, e.g. simply asking “which candidate would you vote for if the elections were tomorrow?”.
But, please, I’m happy to be proven wrong.